2026 Week 12 - Passion and Discipline vs Patience and Discipline

What will survive?

Passion and Discipline

I once came across the idea that passion is nothing without discipline. Lately, that has felt uncomfortably true. Over the past six months, I have lost the discipline to write publicly.

Still, even as I stepped away from writing for a while, I never lost the passion behind it. If anything, that passion simply found another outlet — in the constant refining, questioning, and reworking of my investment process. It has been messy, uneven, and at times frustrating, but slowly, it is beginning to take shape.

Like many investors, I have found myself drawn to AI as part of that process. It no longer feels optional; it feels like a natural next step. Beyond experimenting with a wide range of AI tools to deepen my research on the companies I follow, I have also been working with Claude to simplify my workflow. The goal is not simply to move faster, but to think more clearly, research more effectively, and cover a broader universe of companies without sacrificing depth.

Looking at my YTD returns, however, I suppose AI is of limited use when a new war front opens and oil starts hovering around USD 100. After trailing the HSI for most of the first three months of the year, I have finally managed to outperform it — though only by losing less.

As usual, I expect to hold up better than the index in falling markets than in rising ones. Even so, it is still irritating to be down when I could have locked in gains nearer the top. If only I had not conveniently missed the construction boom in Singapore, the data centre names, and the rise in precious metals, my year-to-date performance would have looked far better.

That is the problem with being detached from the market: you miss all the froth and excitement. Then again, there is always something happening, always another pocket of opportunity forming. I suppose the only thing to do now is to go looking for the next one.

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This was how I performed last year. I believe I took this screenshot sometime in November 2025, though the final return for the year ended up being fairly close to it.

Could I have generated higher returns by being more aggressive?

Probably. But that was never really the goal. What I wanted was a portfolio that could deliver decent outperformance while maintaining diversified exposure across asset classes, industries, and countries. I ended 2025 with 15% in cash, which felt appropriate given the opportunity set available, and I have carried roughly the same cash position into 2026.

Judging from the chart above, it is clear that I have been spending more time building familiarity with basic materials, consumer non-cyclicals, education, technology, utilities, and energy. I have also started working on ideas from Australia, Europe, the UK, and Japan.

In a small but deliberate way, I am trying to expand my circle of competence across asset classes, industries, and geographies. The number of stocks I have held and traded has also increased, and I would largely attribute that to AI.

AI seems to have given me greater perceived confidence in getting up to speed on new industries and companies more quickly. Its integration into my investment process has also allowed me to handle a larger volume of ideas. My hope is that this increased velocity of ideas will eventually translate into better decisions and, in turn, improve capital rotation at the bottom end of the portfolio. I am not going to say much about these individual trades at the bottom end of the portfolio, since those are usually rounding errors in the bigger picture.

Patience and Discipline

There has been only one change in my top five positions. I reduced my stake in Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.UN), which allowed Thakral (AWI.SI) to move into the list. In truth, Thakral was probably my largest holding for most of 2025, since I usually have SEAblings¹ positions in my local accounts.

I have gotten most of my Thakral allocation on the 23rd May 2025 (Friday). That was the day where I mop² up all the available shares that was available for purchase in the morning till the market took a break for the afternoon.

Looking back, I probably should have kept going in the afternoon. I had a clear informational advantage:

I read The Australian every day, first thing in the morning.

23rd May 2025

After years of that routine, it finally paid off. In 2025 alone, I came across two genuine informational arbitrage opportunities. Sometimes, you keep doing the same thing day after day, wondering whether it will ever amount to anything — until one two day it does, and in a meaningful way.

So keep reading whatever you can get your hands on. As an investor friend once said to me, “Out of the 365 days in a year, one of them will be your birthday. Just make sure it counts.”

I made sure mine counted in 2025. Now I am looking forward to my next birthday in the stock market in 2026.

one of the way to make sure it counts

1. I love how netizens living in Southeast Asia refer to themselves as 'SEAblings.' I’ve always identified strongly as Southeast Asian, so if you’re from the region too, you’re officially a SEAbiling to me!

2. I would have like to take some credit for the initial price discovery for Thakral from < SGD 1.00 to today’s price.